2015英特爾ISEF獲獎作品摘要 地球與環境科學 Intel Finalist Abstract Earth and Environmental Sciences

獲獎作品基本信息

年份	2015
學科	地球與環境科學 Earth and Environmental Sciences
國家/州	United States of America

獲獎作品名稱

Modeling and Analyzing Melting Arctic Sea Ice with Percolation Theory

獲獎作品摘要

Extreme losses in summer Arctic sea ice pack, a leading indicator of climate change, have led to the need for significant revisions of global climate models. Part of the efforts to improve these models is an increased emphasis on sea ice albedo (reflectance), which is closely related to the formation of melt ponds on the sea ice. This project investigates the novel use of percolation theory to model melt pond formation. Innovative methods were implemented to calculate the percolation probability as a function of p, the probability of an edge being open. The results were analyzed to determine the critical threshold value pc, which was compared with the known value of 0.50 for a two dimensional square lattice. This model was then adapted to determine the critical area threshold for melt ponds on sea ice as 0.4845, which had not been numerically determined previously. This threshold allows for simple detection of percolation, and thus also changes in the albedo and the melting rate of the sea ice. The calculation of this parameter is a first step to creating more dynamic models for the growth and disappearance of melt ponds over time.

Keywords: Climate Change, Sea Ice Albedo, Graph Theory, Composite Materials Theory, Percolation Thresholds, Recursion, Weighted Sparse Matrices

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ISEF 簡介

英特爾國際科學與工程大獎賽，簡稱 "ISEF"，由美國 Society for Science and the Public（科學和公共服務協會）主辦，英特爾公司冠名贊助，是全球規模最大、等級最高的中學生的科研科創賽事。ISEF 的學術活動學科包括了所有數學、自然科學、工程的全部領域和部分社會科學。ISEF 素有全球青少年科學學術活動的“世界杯”之美譽，旨在鼓勵學生團隊協作，開拓創新，長期專一深入地研究自己感興趣的課題。

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英特爾 ISEF 學術活動詳細介紹

英特爾 ISEF 全程指導方案

· 數學 · 物理 · 化學 · 生物 · 計算機 · 工程 ·

學科簡介：地球與環境科學

Category: Earth and Environmental Sciences

Studies of the environment and its effect on organisms/systems, including investigations of biological processes such as growth and life span, as well as studies of Earth systems and their evolution.

Subcategories:

Atmospheric Science?(AIR):?The study of the Earth's atmosphere, its processes, the effects other systems have on the atmosphere, and the effects of the atmosphere on these other systems as well as meteorological investigations.?Further investigation in this field relates to atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric physics, atmospheric changes (both long and short-term) that define average climates and their change over time, and upper layers of the atmosphere, where dissociation and ionization are important.

Climate Science?(CLI):?Studies of Earth’s climate, particularly evidential study of climate change over a period of time.? This field studies long-term trends in average meteorological conditions and changes in these averaged conditions from season to season, year to year, decade to decade.

Environmental Effects on Ecosystems?(ECS):?Studies of the impact of environmental changes (natural or as a result of human interaction) on ecosystems, including empirical pollution studies.

Geosciences?(GES):?Studies of Earth’s land processes, including mineralogy, plate tectonics, volcanism, and sedimentology.

Water Science?(WAT):?Studies of Earth’s water systems, including water resources, movement, distribution, and water quality.?This field includes the occurrence, movement, abundance, distribution, and quality of subsurface waters and related geologic aspects of surface waters. Furthermore, it projects may also address water from the moment of precipitation until it evaporates into the atmosphere or is discharged into the ocean; for example, river systems and the impacts of flooding.

Other?(OTH):?Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.