2017英特爾ISEF獲獎作品摘要 地球與環境科學 Intel Finalist Abstract Earth and Environmental Sciences

獲獎作品基本信息

年份	2017
學科	地球與環境科學 Earth and Environmental Sciences
國家/州	United States of America

獲獎作品名稱

America's Farming Future: The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields

獲獎作品摘要

Crop yields are strongly dependent on average summertime temperatures and extreme heat waves, both of which are projected to increase in the coming century. A statistical model was created to predict U.S. yields to 2100 for three crops: maize, soybeans, and rice, for both a low and high-emissions future scenario (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The model is based on linear regressions between historical crop yields and daily weather observations since 1970 for every county in the U.S. Geographically, counties further south are more sensitive to heat extremes, implying that crops will grow better farther north in the future. The model shows that climate change will have a strong influence on maize and soy yields, and less on rice. For the high emissions scenario, crop yields are predicted to decrease by 3.8% per decade for maize, 2.4% for soy, and 0.83% for rice, if there are no compensating improvements in agricultural technology. Decreases in crop yields for the low emissions scenario are about half as much. This compares with an average increase in yields of? 24%,? 18%, and 17% per decade since 1970 due to improvements in plant breeds and farming practices. Climate change results in a loss of $23 billion for maize and $11.5 billion for soy per year in 2100? for the high emissions scenario, in today’s prices. This study highlights the importance of accounting for future costs of climate change when choosing today’s energy policies, and motivates continued improvements in agricultural technology to compensate for warming temperatures.

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ISEF 簡介

英特爾國際科學與工程大獎賽，簡稱 "ISEF"，由美國 Society for Science and the Public（科學和公共服務協會）主辦，英特爾公司冠名贊助，是全球規模最大、等級最高的中學生的科研科創賽事。ISEF 的學術活動學科包括了所有數學、自然科學、工程的全部領域和部分社會科學。ISEF 素有全球青少年科學學術活動的“世界杯”之美譽，旨在鼓勵學生團隊協作，開拓創新，長期專一深入地研究自己感興趣的課題。

學科簡介：地球與環境科學

Category: Earth and Environmental Sciences

Studies of the environment and its effect on organisms/systems, including investigations of biological processes such as growth and life span, as well as studies of Earth systems and their evolution.

Subcategories:

Atmospheric Science?(AIR):?The study of the Earth's atmosphere, its processes, the effects other systems have on the atmosphere, and the effects of the atmosphere on these other systems as well as meteorological investigations.?Further investigation in this field relates to atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric physics, atmospheric changes (both long and short-term) that define average climates and their change over time, and upper layers of the atmosphere, where dissociation and ionization are important.

Climate Science?(CLI):?Studies of Earth’s climate, particularly evidential study of climate change over a period of time.? This field studies long-term trends in average meteorological conditions and changes in these averaged conditions from season to season, year to year, decade to decade.

Environmental Effects on Ecosystems?(ECS):?Studies of the impact of environmental changes (natural or as a result of human interaction) on ecosystems, including empirical pollution studies.

Geosciences?(GES):?Studies of Earth’s land processes, including mineralogy, plate tectonics, volcanism, and sedimentology.

Water Science?(WAT):?Studies of Earth’s water systems, including water resources, movement, distribution, and water quality.?This field includes the occurrence, movement, abundance, distribution, and quality of subsurface waters and related geologic aspects of surface waters. Furthermore, it projects may also address water from the moment of precipitation until it evaporates into the atmosphere or is discharged into the ocean; for example, river systems and the impacts of flooding.

Other?(OTH):?Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.

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