2009 HiMCM B題特等獎學生論文下載2379

2009 HiMCM B題特等獎學生論文下載2379

 

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論文摘要如下：

 

In this paper, we demonstrate a mathematical model that evaluates the economic effects of tsunamis on a number of cities in the United States. We subdivide the problem into three parts: 1) a theoretical physics-based model to determine the height and speed of a tsunami given earthquake parameters; 2) a computational simulation to determine the physical impact of a tsunami on a target city; 3) a statistics-based model to determine ultimate economic effects.

The earthquake parameters of intensity on the moment magnitude scale and epicenter-target city distance are used to calculate the tsunami parameters of height and speed. Tsunami height and speed upon reaching the shore are input into a tsunami simulation program which returns the area impacted by the tsunami. The area of impact is then used along with economic statistics (such as property values) to calculate the net economic damage caused by a tsunami.

We evaluate our model for certain earthquake parameters in seven cities: New York City, Boston, Virginia Beach, Charleston, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Hilo. Our results indicate that the potential economic costs of a tsunami range from tens of millions for smaller cities hit by small-scale tsunamis to several billion dollars when densely populated urban areas are hit by larger tsunamis. The results of our case study simulations are presented in the table below.

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