IGCSE經(jīng)濟(jì)——Exchange rate

Exchange rate影響匯率的因素

Factors which influence the exchange rate

An exchange rate is determined by supply and demand factors. These are the various factors which determine the demand and supply of a currency.

（對于某種貨幣供給和需求的變化會導(dǎo)致匯率的變化）

1. Inflation

If inflation in the?UK?is lower than elsewhere, then?UK?exports will become more competitive and there will be an increase in demand for ￡s. Also foreign goods will be less competitive and so?UK?citizens will supply less ￡s to buy foreign goods.Therefore the rate of ￡ will tend to increase.

（Jason 老師分析和講解：通貨膨脹程度低的話意味著英國物價相對便宜，所以會促進(jìn)出口的增加和對于英鎊的需求增加。另一方面，英國人會比較偏好購買本國商品，英鎊供給會減少，需求增加，英鎊需求曲線向右移動，供給曲線向左移動，抬高英鎊匯率，英鎊價格升高。

2. Interest Rates

If?UK?interest rates rise relative to elsewhere, it will become more attractive to deposit money in the?UK, Therefore demand for?Sterling?will rise. This is known as “hot money flows” and is an important short run determinant of the value of a currency

（Jason老師分析和講解：英國利率提高，意味著更能吸引國外公司來英國儲蓄和投資，對于英鎊的需求就會升高，也可以稱為熱錢的流入，匯率短期內(nèi)的變化可能會由于貨幣政策（匯率的變化）而升值或者貶值）

3. Speculation

If speculators believe the sterling will rise in the future, they will demand more now to be able to make a profit. This increase in demand will cause the value to rise.Therefore movements in the exchange rate do not always reflect economic fundamentals, but are often driven by the sentiments of the financial markets.?For example, if markets see news which makes an interest rate increase more likely, the value of the Pound will probably rise in anticipation.

（Jason老師分析：投機(jī)行為指的是在市場中你認(rèn)為或者預(yù)計英鎊會上漲，所以想在目前低價的時候買入，高價時拋售，這點(diǎn)其實和股票投資還是比較相似的，那這樣的話英鎊的需求就會上升。當(dāng)然匯率的變動不一定在所有的情況下都能反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)變化情況，可能很多時候是由于金融市場投機(jī)者的介入而導(dǎo)致的（如亞洲金融危機(jī)，當(dāng)時泰國遭受的經(jīng)濟(jì)重創(chuàng)就是由于國際市場大量拋售泰銖所致），基本面的宏觀信息（如預(yù)期利率的上升也會導(dǎo)致大量國際投資者換匯成英鎊對英國進(jìn)行投資，導(dǎo)致英鎊的需求上升，英鎊升值）

4. Change in competitiveness

If British goods become more attractive and competitive this will also cause the value of the Exchange Rate to rise. This is important for determining the long run value of the Pound.

（Jason老師分析：英國商品如果在國際市場上比較受歡迎，也會導(dǎo)致英鎊升值，當(dāng)然從長期來看，英國商品在國際市場上受歡迎，才能長期保證英鎊在匯市的需求增加，匯率保持持續(xù)增長。）

5. Relative strength of other currencies

Between 1999 and 2001 the ￡ appreciated because the Euro was seen as a weak currency.

（在1999年至2001年期間，有興趣的同學(xué)可以去了解下，在這2年期間，英鎊兌歐元一致保持強(qiáng)勁勢頭）

6. Balance of Payments

A large deficit on the current account means that the value of imports is greater than the value of exports. If this is financed by a suplus on the financial / capital account then this is OK. But a country who struggles to attract enough capital inflows will see a depreciation in the currency.

（Jason老師分析：國際收支平衡表盈余，指的是出口大于進(jìn)口，因為你出口商品以后，會得到大量外匯儲備，而赤字，當(dāng)然是出口小于進(jìn)口。如果一個國家很難吸引其他國來投資，說明對于貨幣的需求不足，本國貨幣可能會貶值。）

固定匯率制和浮動匯率制

The advantages of a fixed exchange rate system

Stability

Some economists would argue that this is the most significant advantage. If exchange rates are stable over a given period of time, exporting firms will be able to plan ahead without worrying about huge swings in the value of the pound eliminating their profit margin. This will encourage more investment and trade between countries, both of which are important if economies are to grow in the long term.

Discipline

If a country is part of an exchange rate system, they cannot devalue their currency at the first sign of trouble (i.e. a large current account deficit). They have to try and cure the fundamental problem by, for example, improving the competitiveness of their exporters through increased productivity and improved quality.One can also argue that fixed exchange rate systems discipline countries into keeping inflation down. Again, there is no option to devalue if increasing inflation leads to reduced competitiveness.

Avoid speculation?Theoretically, fixed exchange rates should eliminate speculation because there is no point buying and selling currencies that will not change in value. In the real world, this is not always the case.Speculators believed the politicians when they said that these rates were forever, and so did not see the point in buying or selling the currencies involved.

The disadvantages of a fixed exchange rate system

The loss of monetary policy

A commitment to a fixed exchange rate means that you lose control over all other instruments of?monetary policy. Although the government pretended that UK interest rate decisions we still their own (and technically they were) any movement of the German interest rate was usually quickly followed by a similar change in the UK. Today the?Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)?can set interest rates at whatever level they want, but they cannot control the value of the pound at the same time. Controlling one of these two instruments means a loss of control of the other.The need for a large pool of reservesTo maintain the pound's value within the ERM, the government had to have a large pool of foreign reserves with which to buy the pound when it fell to the floor of the bottom band. Apart from being expensive in itself, some countries may find it hard to get their hands on sufficient stocks of reserves to support their currency. One of the main jobs of the IMF in the Bretton Woods system was to help poor countries in times of trouble and lend them reserves when they were short.

Problems of uncompetitivenessWith a freely floating currency, a deteriorating trade situation should automatically cause the pound to fall (speculators permitting!), which, in turn, would improve the competitiveness of British exporters and improve the trade balance.Economies stuck in a fixed exchange rate system with a deteriorating trade balance may feel that they joined the system at too high an exchange rate. Although they may be allowed to devalue eventually, the exchange rate may be at the wrong rate for significant periods of time. This can cause permanent job losses and recession. Some economists feel that the recession of 1990-92 in the UK was prolonged due to membership of the ERM.

Advantages of a floating exchange rate system

Theoretical elimination of trade imbalances

As we have stated before, floating exchange rates should adjust automatically to trade imbalances, which, in turn, will eliminate the trade imbalance. Of course, it has also been noted that this does not always work in the real world because so few currency transactions that take place are for trade.

No need for reserves?

On the whole, foreign reserves are used to help maintain a currency's position within a fixed exchange rate. If a currency is freely floating, then there is no need to use reserves to affect its value. In the real world, governments will always have some reserves, in case of a crisis in the balance of payments, or if they feel that their currency is getting a bit too high or too low.

More freedom over domestic policy

As was stated above, if the government is not controlling their exchange rate, then they?can?control their rate of interest. The evidence of the past five years suggests that, although exporters suffer with a strong pound, the economy as a whole is best served when the authorities can control domestic monetary policy.

The disadvantages of a floating exchange rate system

Speculation

Again, there are two ways of looking at this. You could argue that with floating exchange rates, speculation is less likely because an exchange rate can move freely up or down, so it is more likely to be at its true level. But the very fact that it does move up and down easily means it can move a long way if speculators think that it is at the wrong level. The quick rise in the value of the pound in the second half of 1996 showed that big swings in currencies do not just happen when speculators force them out of fixed exchange rate systems.

Uncertainty

The biggest advantage of fixed exchange rate systems was their stability and certainty. This tended to increase investment and trade, both good things. The biggest disadvantage of floating exchange rate systems is their uncertainty, reducing the rate at which investment and trade increase. Firms often use the currency markets to hedge against large fluctuations in the exchange rate, which helps to a certain extent, but there is still felt to be too much uncertainty.