What do I need to know about probability for AS and A level Mathematics?

• The language used in probability can be confusing so here are some definitions of commonly misunderstood terms
  • An?experiment?is a repeatable activity that has a result that can be observed or recorded; it is what is happening in a question
  • An?outcome?is the result of an experiment
  • All possible outcomes can be shown in a?sample?space?– this may be a list or a table and is particularly useful when it is difficult to envisage all possible outcomes in your head

e.g.? The sample space below is for two?fair?four-sided spinners whose outcomes are the product of the sides showing when spun.

• • An?event?is an outcome or a collection of outcomes; it is what we are interested in happening
    • Do note how this could be more than one outcome
      e.g. For the spinners above,
      the event “the product is -2” has one outcome but
      the event “the product is negative” has 6 outcomes
• Terminology?- be careful with the words?'not',?'and'?and?'or'
  • A?and?B?means both the events?A?and?B?happen at the same time

How do I solve A level probability questions?

• Be aware of whether you are using?theoretical?probabilities?or probabilities based on the results of several experiments (relative?frequency). You may have to compare the two and make a judgement as to whether there is?bias?in the experiment.

e.g.??????? The outcomes from rolling a fair dice have theoretical probabilities but the outcomes from a football match would be based on previous results between the two teams

• For probabilities based on relative frequency, a large number of experiments usually provides a better estimate of the probability of an event happening
• Frequencies?or?probabilities?may have to be read from basic statistical?diagrams?such as?bar?charts,?box-and-whisker?diagrams,?stem?and?leaf?diagrams, etc

What are independent events?

• Independent?events?do not affect each other
• For two independent events, the probability of one event happening is unaffected by the outcome of the other event
  • e.g.? ? The events “rolling a 6 on a dice” and “flipping heads on a coin” are? ? independent
    • the outcome “rolling a 6” does not affect the probability of the outcome “heads” (and vice versa)
• For two?independent?events,?A?and?B

• Independent events could refer to events from different experiments

What are mutually exclusive events?

• Mutually?exclusive?eventscannot occur simultaneously

• Mutually?exclusive?events generally refer to events from the same (single trial of an)?experiment
• Mutually exclusive events cannot be independent; the outcome of one event means the probability of the other event is zero

How do I solve problems involving independent and mutually exclusive events?

• Make sure you know the statistical terms –?independent?and?mutually?exclusive
• Remember
• Solving problems will require interpreting the information given and the application of the appropriate formula
  • Information may be explained in words or by diagram(s)

(including Venn diagrams – see Revision Note Venn Diagrams)

• Showing?or?determining?whether two events are independent or mutually exclusive are also common
  • To do this you would show the relevant formula is true