雙語|2018應投資什么？a great year of economic opportunity for Australia?

前言 澳洲財長Scott Morrison相信，過去一年澳大利亞創紀錄的就業增長將對經濟產生影響，并最終帶來薪資水平的提高，這一切對經濟整體而言是至關重要的。

對于全球經濟來說，道理的確如此，但是對于澳洲來說，特別是在與中國關系存在不確定因素的情況下，每一次只要出現政治危機，澳洲的貿易都會受到創傷。

澳洲與美國的關系現在不太可能以有利于澳大利亞貿易的情況發展，與脫歐的英國以及和歐盟的關系也不太可能在短期內顯示出多大的進步。

與印度、非洲和南美洲的關系也同樣不確定。

預計中東地區將保持穩定。

下個月，東盟將在悉尼舉行一次特別峰會，但在此我們仍很難找到可以幫助在今年實現貿易增長的確鑿事實。

只要澳元保持競爭力，勞動力價格保持穩定，旅游業是最大的希望

澳洲財長很高興地表示，每天都有超過1100個工作崗位被創造出來，其中包括超過30萬份全職工作。

這個記錄仍然保持翻滾：這是40年來最強記錄的一年，也是擁有最強勁全職工作增長記錄的一年，還是歷年來擁有最長時間連續每月就業增長的一年。

這很好，但我們在回顧過去的時候，前面的道路就看得不那么清晰了。

擺在面前的主要障礙似乎是，只有達成了減稅，有了足夠的資金流入消費經濟，才能提振收入。

最近的利潤增長在很多情況下都不是基于生產力的，而是通過降低產出的效率來實現的，實際上是通過縮減供給以推動更高的價格，電力產業就是一個很好的例子。

哪些行業就業率激增？

新增的就業機會多數都在小企業或者政府行政部門。

那么，這樣的增長會持續多久則是下一個人們想問的問題了。

就業市場對人才的持續需求將會對行業的薪資水平帶來上升影響。

在醫療保健和教育等領域，在過去幾年里，就業增長相當強勁，工資增長速度高于全國平均水平。

從2017年起直至2017年11月，醫療保健行業創造了逾10萬個就業崗位，該行業的薪資增幅為2.7%，而全國平均水平為2%，這并不令人意外。

勞動力市場的供給和需求是否恢復正常?

很明顯，服務行業也復制了同樣的模式，用于衡量就業人數情況的AIG服務業指數(Service Index)，達到了自2004年12月以來的最高水平。

據報道，該行業內強勁的勞動力需求正導致專業領域出現技能短缺，這加大了工資增長的壓力。

今年1月，招聘廣告躍升6.2%，較去年同期增長13.8%。

這是自2011年4月以來，招聘廣告投放頻率最高的一次，也是自2011年以來的最佳開局之年。

同樣，NAB的季度商業調查顯示，就業預期指數已升至近10年來的最高水平。

政府耗資11億澳元的國家創新和科學議程(NISA)也在促進競爭，24項措施中有19項已經實施。

NISA是否成為2018經濟助推力？

政府已經為NISA項目投入了超過7億澳元作為創新基金，投資給那些正忙于創建下一代技術和創新突破的公司，比如，通過旨在將我們的研究成果商業化的CSIRO創新基金，為Morse Micro公司進行投資，以建設下一代的無線芯片。

在硅量子計算領域的投資則是支持了硅量子計算技術的發展和商業化。

另外還有通過CSIRO的7500萬澳元投資，幫助Data61尋找能夠讓澳大利亞人利用數據革命的機會，并向聰明的中小企業提供資金，幫助他們能夠將其創新的想法成果推向市場。

對天使投資者和風險投資家的稅收激勵措施最近得到了加強，作為NISA計劃的一部分，政府將允許創新的金融服務企業能夠獲得獲取資金的機會，以獲得啟動資金。

聽起來似乎都很好，但我們仍很難確定2018年這一切能否成功。

那么，究竟應該如何做投資呢？在利率上升或雙降的情況下，鞏固償還債務，并進行高杠桿投資嗎?

在最近的股市調整和市場與實際潛在經濟增長脫鉤的情況下，人們似乎對資本保護資產類別投資重拾興趣。

『原文』2018 a great year of economic opportunity for Australia, what’s different now?

The Treasurer Scott Morrison believes it is of critical importance last year’s record growth in jobs will impact the economy by eventually working its way through to increases in wages.

Looking at the world economy this may well be the case, however for Australia here is the uncertainty in its relationship with China, where trade seems to suffer each time a political crisis develops.

The USA relationship is unlikely to increase in trade terms in Australia’s favour, Brexit and the EU relationship are equally unlikely to show much growth in the short term.

India, Africa and South America are just as uncertain.

The middle east is expected to remain steady.

ASEAN will have a special Summit in Sydney mid next month, but here too it is difficult to find hard facts that will help grow trade substantially this year.

Tourism is a great hope, provided the Australian dollar stays competitive and labour rates remain stable.

The Treasurer loves to claim more than 1,100 jobs are being created every single day, including more than 300,000 of those jobs full-time over the previous reporting period.

The records keep tumbling: the strongest calendar year results in over 40 years, the strongest calendar year growth in full-time jobs on record, the equal longest run of consecutive monthly jobs growth in history.

This is nice, but we are looking in the rear-view mirror, looking at the road ahead it is less clear.

The main obstacles in front seem?to be if the tax cuts eventuate and enough money flows into the consumer economy to give revenues a lift.

Recent profit increases have in many cases not been productivity based but came about through higher efficiencies with lower output, in effect squizzing supply to force higher prices, electricity is a good example here.

Where are these jobs created?

Many are in small business and many are in government administration as well.

How long lasting these last is the next logical question?

Increasing demand for human resources in the jobs market will see upward pressure, once again, placed on wages.

In sectors such as healthcare and education, where jobs growth has been considerably strengthened over the past few years, wages are growing faster than the national average.

More than 100,000 jobs were created in the healthcare sector through the year 2017 to November, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that wages in the sector are growing at 2.7 percent, compared to the national average of 2 percent.

Is normal transmission on supply and demand in the labour market being restored?

The same pattern is apparently replicated in the services sector, with the AIG Performance of Service Index measure of employment accelerating to its highest level since December 2004.

This strong labour demand within the sector is reportedly leaving specialised fields with skill shortages, increasing the pressure on wage growth.

Job ads jumped 6.

2 percent in January to be 13.

8 percent higher over the past year 2017.

This is the highest level of job ads since April 2011 and the best start to a calendar year since 2011.

Similarly, the NAB Quarterly business survey showed that the employment expectations subindex has risen to its highest level in almost a decade.

Competition is also being fostered through the Government’s $1.1 billion National Innovation and Science Agenda (NISA), with 19 of the 24 measures having been implemented.

NISA an economic factor in 2018?

NISA has poured more than $700 million into innovation funds that are investing in companies that are busy creating the next generation of technology and innovation breakthroughs like investment in Morse Micro to build the next generation of Wi-Fi chip,

through the CSIRO Innovation Fund which aims to commercialise our research.

Investment in Silicon Quantum Computing to support the development and commercialisation, as the name suggests, of silicon quantum computing technology.

The $75 million investment through the CSIRO to help Data61 look for opportunities for Australians to capitalise on the data revolution, and grants to smart SMEs to harness innovative ideas and help them take it to the market.

As part of the broader NISA agenda, legislated tax incentives for angel investors and venture capitalists have been recently enhanced by allowing innovative financial service businesses to access these sources of funding, to get innovative start-ups running.

All well and good but hardly a recipe for the certainty of success in 2018.

So, what is one supposed to do with investment dollars? Consolidate pay back debt in the face of rising interest rates or double down and invest more with leverage?

Give the recent stock market correction and the markets decoupling from the real underlying economic growth we seem to be back to looking at capital protected asset classes.

How do you see it, what investments would you make for 2018?

A. ? ?Real Estate

B. ? ?Cash

C. ? ?Shares

D. ? ?Cryptocurrencies

E. ? ?Other

作者Author：Roger Hausmann -?Federal Parliamentary Journalist澳洲聯邦記者本文翻譯Translator：千千Coco本文編輯Editor：千千Coco