2015英特爾ISEF獲獎作品摘要 生物醫學與健康科學 Intel Finalist Abstract Biomedical and Health Sciences

獲獎作品基本信息

年份	2015
學科	生物醫學與健康科學 Biomedical and Health Sciences
國家/州	United States of America

獲獎作品名稱

The Ebola Epidemic in West Africa: Developing a Transmission Model to Compare the Effectiveness of Interventions

獲獎作品摘要

Purpose: a) Design and implement a gravity spatial model for the ongoing epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa; and b) use this model, to evaluate the relative effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing local or long-range transmission, such as quarantine, lock-downs, and border closure.

Methods: The gravity spatial model was fitted to data from May 24 to September 30, 2014, and simulated to October 31. The model provided data about the balance of transmission from local and long-range sources. The model was used to simulate different levels and types of intervention and compare the efficacy of interventions by examining the case reductions of each one.

Results: This model accurately fits the data from the epidemic and accurately forecasts cases and deaths for the month after the data. The model's spatial spread component allows it to explain the transmission dynamics of the EVD outbreak in West Africa, including multiple "ignition" cycles of the outbreak in Guinea. The intervention analysis supports that local transmission reduction in Liberia and long-range transmission reduction in Sierra Leone were the most effective interventions.

Conclusion: The gravity spatial model is an effective framework for understanding transmission dynamics in the EVD epidemic in West Africa. It successfully fits and forecasts data from the outbreak. The intervention analysis presented here can help to guide public health policy and intervention efforts for this and future outbreaks.

 

---

高中生科研 英特爾 Intel ISEF
資訊 · 課程 · 全程指導
請掃碼添加微信好友

[vc_btn title="聯系電話：(021) 63526628" color="black" align="center" css_animation="fadeIn" link="url:tel%3A02163526628||target:%20_blank|rel:nofollow"]

---

ISEF 簡介

英特爾國際科學與工程大獎賽，簡稱 "ISEF"，由美國 Society for Science and the Public（科學和公共服務協會）主辦，英特爾公司冠名贊助，是全球規模最大、等級最高的中學生的科研科創賽事。ISEF 的學術活動學科包括了所有數學、自然科學、工程的全部領域和部分社會科學。ISEF 素有全球青少年科學學術活動的“世界杯”之美譽，旨在鼓勵學生團隊協作，開拓創新，長期專一深入地研究自己感興趣的課題。

>>> 實用鏈接匯總 <<<

英特爾 ISEF 學術活動詳細介紹

英特爾 ISEF 全程指導方案

- 數學 - 物理 - 化學 - 生物 - 計算機 - 工程 -

學科簡介：生物醫學與健康科學 Biomedical and Health Sciences

This category focuses on studies specifically designed to address issues of human health and disease. It includes studies on the diagnosis, treatment, prevention or epidemiology of disease and other damage to the human body or mental systems. Includes studies of normal functioning and may investigate internal as well as external factors such as feedback mechanisms, stress or environmental impact on human health and disease.

Subcategories:

Cell, Organ, and Systems Physiology?(PHY):?These studies investigate mechanisms that are involved in maintaining health or when disrupted, cause disease. They could involve investigating such things as the role of cell signaling pathways both within the cell (intracellular) and/or between cells (extracellular). Alternatively, studies in this subcategory could investigate the maintenance of homeostasis at the organ or whole body level (e.g., hormonal control and regulation). These studies may also be in areas such as disease-related, stress-related, biochemical, mechanical, or physical changes at the tissue, organ, and /or cellular level.

Genetics and Molecular Biology of Disease?(GEN):?These studies investigate the genetic and molecular mechanisms involved in the regulatory pathways that maintain normal body and cellular function or if disturbed can lead to disease. Studies could include examining the activation and deactivation of genes (e.g., transcription factors or epigenetic regulation) or involve more classical genetic identification studies.

Immunology?(IMM):?These studies will investigate any aspects of the immune system that are involved in maintaining health or when altered lead to pathology. These studies can include new investigations of normal immune function (e.g., immune cell interactions and signaling), or they may study diseases caused by disorders in regulation of the immune system (e.g., immunodeficiency or autoimmunity). Alternatively the studies could investigate problems such as graft vs host or host versus graft disease that arise during the treatment of other diseases or conditions.

Nutrition and Natural Products?(NTR):?The study of food, nutrients and dietary need in humans, and the effects of food and nourishment on the body. ?These studies may include the effects of natural or supplemental nutrients and nutrition.

Pathophysiology?(PAT):?These studies will be focused on determining specific causes of disease and on physiological mechanisms responsible for disease development. Investigations in this category will examine changes in the normal physiological balance, or homeostasis that cause a reaction(s) within the body leading to disease.

Other?(OTH):?Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories.?If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.