意大利與西班牙的同與不同

IT IS TEMPTING?to lump Europe’s two big southern countries together. Italians and Spaniards talk loudly, eat late, drive fast and slurp down life-prolonging quantities of tomatoes and olive oil (such, at least, are the clichés). They were cradles of European anarchism in the 19th century and fascism in the 20th century; brushing dictatorship under the carpet before embracing Europe in the post-war years. During the euro-zone crisis from 2009 they were two components of the ugly acronym “PIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) denoting particularly indebted economies. Today once more they are being mentioned in the same breath.

人們很容易將南洲兩大國家混為一談。意大利人和西班牙人說話聲音很大，吃飯很晚，開車速度也快，大口大口吃能長壽的西紅柿和橄欖油(至少大家都這么說)。意大利和西班牙是19世紀歐洲無政府主義和20世紀法西斯主義的發祥地；在二戰后多年后，他們掃除了獨裁統治后，才融入了歐洲。在2009年的歐元區危機期間，它們是“豬”（PIGS）(葡萄牙、意大利、希臘、西班牙)這個丑陋的縮略詞的成員國家——指的是負債特別嚴重的經濟體。如今，他們兩個國家又放到一起相提并論。

Italian volatility appears to be arriving on the Iberian peninsula. Spain’s once boringly bi-party politics has become a five-party kaleidoscope with the emergence of the hard-left Podemos, the centre-right Ciudadanos and most recently the hard-right Vox. It is increasingly polarised by battles over Catalan independence. Last summer Pedro Sánchez’s centre-left Socialists (PSOE), backed by Catalan nationalists, toppled a centre-right People’s Party (PP) government. But the Catalans refused to back the new government’s budget, forcing Mr Sánchez to call an election for April 28th. A right-wing coalition of PP, Ciudadanos and Vox (which would surely inflame Catalan nationalism) or a deadlock and new elections are the most likely outcomes.

意大利的動蕩似乎正波及伊比利亞半島。隨著極左的Podemos（意為“我們可以”）、中右的公民黨以及最近的極右Vox的出現，西班牙曾經沉悶的兩黨政治變成了一個五黨混雜的萬花筒。加泰羅尼亞獨立之爭使其日益分化。去年夏天，佩德羅?桑切斯(Pedro Sanchez)領導的加泰羅尼亞民族主義者支持的中左翼社會黨(PSOE)推翻了中右翼人民黨(PP)政府。但是，加泰羅尼亞人拒絕支持新政府的預算，迫使桑切斯在4月28日舉行選舉。人民黨、公民黨和Vox組成的右翼聯盟(這肯定會激起加泰羅尼亞的民族主義)、僵局和新選舉是最有可能的結果。

It can ill-afford either. The country’s recovery belies the urgency of pension, education and labour reforms, as well as nagging corruption and a rise in trans-Mediterranean migration. Years of political instability would leave these priorities unattended. Eurocrats note that Spain last year missed more deadlines for implementing EU?legislation than any other member state. The sudden emergence of Vox and its embrace by other parties (it props up a PP-led government in Andalusia) evokes at once the country’s Francoist past and alarming parallels with Italy. There, the Northern League, once a peripheral Vox-like party, now dominates a chaotic, Eurosceptic coalition that is spooking markets as decades of negligible growth make its debt pile teeter.

這些結果都是難以承擔。西班牙的經濟復蘇掩蓋了養老金、教育和勞動力改革的緊迫性，以及揮之不去的腐敗和跨地中海而來的移民人數的增加問題。多年的政治動蕩將使這些優先事項無人問津。歐盟官員指出，西班牙在去年是歐盟成員國中沒有批準歐盟立法最多的。Vox的突然出現和其他黨派的支持(支持人民黨領導的安達盧西亞政府)立刻喚起了這個國家過去的佛朗哥主義，并與意大利驚人的相似。在那里，北方聯盟(Northern League)曾經是一個類似于Vox的邊緣政黨，如今成為一個混亂不堪、持歐洲懷疑論的聯盟主導力量。在數十年微不足道的增長使意大利債務搖搖欲墜的情況下，這樣的執政聯盟讓市場感到恐慌不已。

Yet despite all that, fundamental differences to do with national metabolism, lost on some northern European officials, separate the two countries. Italy is shackled by conservatism and stasis. Its euro-zone crisis was (and is) the mild acceleration of a long-term national slump. GDP?has barely grown since the late 1990s, making a debt mountain accumulated in earlier times unsustainable. Spain meanwhile hurtles forward, having grown by almost half during that period. Its euro-zone misery was more sharp and dramatic: a hyperactive construction boom raced off a cliff during the banking crisis, causing a spike in unemployment.

然而，盡管如此，與國家發展有關的根本差異(一些北歐官員忽略了這一點)讓這兩國各不相同。保守主義和經濟停滯不前束縛了意大利的發展。它出現的歐元區危機曾是(現在也是)國家長期衰退的溫和加速。自上世紀90年代末以來，意大利的GDP幾乎沒有增長，這使得早期積累的大量債務難以為繼。與此同時，西班牙也在快速前進，同期增長了近一半。西班牙的歐元區危機苦難更為尖銳和劇烈：在銀行業爆發危機期間，極度活躍的建筑熱潮激流猛退，導致失業率飆升。

The difference between slow-metabolism Italy and fast-metabolism Spain goes beyond economic statistics. Decline has been the defining Italian experience of the past decades, so the new looks threatening and unwelcome there. But Spaniards have experienced the past decades as a time of rising prosperity and freedom after the drab Franco years. They are neophiles, willing to try anything that smacks of the future. The contrast between the two countries is that between Spain’s urban spaces, which gleam with futuristic architecture and public works, and Italy’s peeling cities; between Spaniards’ openness to social change and Italians’ conservatism; between the existential melancholy of Paolo Sorrentino’s films and the freneticism of Pedro Almodóvar.

發展緩慢的意大利和快速發展的西班牙之間的差異不僅僅在于經濟統計數據。過去幾十年，衰落一直是意大利的標志性經歷，因此，新面貌既有威脅性，且不受歡迎。然而，西班牙人在經歷了佛朗哥時代的沉悶之后，在過去的幾十年里經歷了一個日益繁榮和自由的時代。他們是新狂熱分子，愿意嘗試任何有未來味道的東西。兩國之間的對比是西班牙的城市空間(閃爍著未來主義建筑和公共工程的光芒)和意大利剝落的城市之間的對比；在西班牙人對社會變革的開放與意大利人的保守主義之間：介于保羅·索倫蒂諾(Paolo Sorrentino)電影中的存在主義憂郁與佩德羅·阿爾莫多瓦(Pedro Almodovar)的狂躁之間。

A fast national metabolism has its downsides. Some of Spain’s shiny new infrastructure is wasteful and some Spaniards, especially in rural areas, resent the pace of change and are turning to Vox in protest. But it does also make Spain’s descent into reactionary Italy-style stagnation improbable. For one thing, its economy is fitter. Spain had a deeper euro-crisis but recovered faster, thanks to drastic economic reforms and spending cuts. Exports and FDI?surged. Its GDP?per person in purchasing-power terms overtook that of Italy in 2017 and is forecast to be 7% higher within five years. Heavy investment in roads and high-speed rail has made Spain’s infrastructure the tenth best in the world, says the World Economic Forum. Italy is 21st.

一個國家的快速發展也有其缺點。西班牙一些嶄新的新基礎設施純粹是浪費，而一些西班牙人，尤其是在農村地區，對改革的步伐感到不滿，在抗議中轉向Vox。但這也使得西班牙不太可能陷入意大利式的保守性經濟停滯。首先，西班牙的經濟更加健康。西班牙經歷了歐元危機更為深重，但由于劇烈的經濟改革和開支削減，復蘇速度更快。出口和外國直接投資激增。2017年，西班牙的人均國內生產總值(GDP)的購買力超過了意大利，預計五年內將增長7%。世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)表示，對道路和高速鐵路的巨額投資，使西班牙的基礎設施在全球排名第10，而意大利則位于第21位。

A sunny country陽光國家

All of which translates into an outward-looking optimism. Mr Sánchez, who wants Spain to become a third partner in the Franco-German alliance, is particularly pro-EU, but the PP’s Pablo Casado admires Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats in Germany and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos brandishes EU?flags at his rallies. According to Eurobarometer, 68% of Spaniards view the EU?positively compared with 36% of Italians. Vox directs its anti-establishment ire not at the EU?so much as at feminists and separatist Catalans.

所有這些都轉化為一種向外看的樂觀主義。桑切斯希望西班牙成為法德同盟的第三個伙伴，他特別支持歐盟，但人民黨主席帕布羅?卡薩多贊賞安格拉?默克爾領導的德國基督教民主黨，以及公民黨的阿爾伯特?里維拉在集會上揮舞歐盟旗幟。根據民調機構歐洲晴雨表的調查，68%的西班牙人對歐盟持積極態度，而意大利人的這一比例為36%。Vox的反建制怒火與其說指向歐盟，不如說是指向女權主義者和加泰羅尼亞分裂主義者。

It also talks about immigration, but less than other European right-populist parties. Why? The foreign-born share of the population rose from 3% to 14% in the two decades to 2008, but Spaniards are more likely than any other EU?population to declare themselves comfortable in social interactions with migrants (83% compared with 40% of Italians). Despite rising immigration from Africa and new efforts to improve border security, none of Spain’s main parties proposes to close ports or indulges in Mr Salvini’s brand of anti-migrant posturing. In other areas, too, Spaniards have left the chauvinism of the Franco years behind; a broad consensus backs gender equality and gay rights (equal marriage was introduced in 2005, behind only Belgium and the Netherlands).

移民問題也有所涉及，但比歐洲其他右翼民粹主義政黨要少。原因為何? 在2008年前的20年里，在國外出生的人口比例從3%上升到14%，但是西班牙人比任何其他歐盟國家的人都更有可能宣稱自己在與移民的社會交往中感到自在(83%，而意大利人的比例為40%)。盡管來自非洲的移民人數不斷增加，并為改善邊境安全做出了新的努力，西班牙的主要政黨都沒有提議關閉港口，也沒有縱容薩爾維尼的反移民姿態。在其他領域，西班牙人也拋棄了佛朗哥時代的沙文主義；?廣泛的共識支持性別平等和同性戀權利(2005年引入了平等婚姻，僅晚于比利時和荷蘭)。

Years of political chaos could threaten this picture. But if that applies to Spain, it applies to other European countries too, where the same fragmentation is taking place. Last year’s change of government, though fraught, was procedurally exemplary and proof that Spain’s young constitutional order now has at least the maturity of its western European neighbours. It is Italy, with its decades-old fractiousness and stagnation, that looks more out of kilter. Spain is different, goes the old saying. But Italy is more so.

多年的政治混亂可能會威脅到這一局面。不過，如果這在西班牙出現的話，也會在其它歐洲國家出現，因為同樣的分裂正在出現。去年的政府換屆雖然令人擔憂，但在程序上堪稱典范，證明了西班牙年輕的憲法秩序至少已達到其西歐鄰國的成熟程度。意大利有著幾十年的動蕩和停滯，看起來更不平衡。俗話說，西班牙就是不一樣。不過，意大利更是如此。